The Phrasebook
Transfer reporting has a vocabulary, and every phrase in it makes a promise. This page measures the promises: for each form of words, how many tracked claims carried it, and how many of those claims have been proven right against the verified record. Counted over every account we track, journalists and ITKs alike.
“Done deal”
39% proven right
516 claims: 201 proven right, 1 proven wrong, 3 part right, 311 still open.
Counted forms: "done deal".
“Agreed personal terms”
46% proven right
279 claims: 129 proven right, 2 proven wrong, 3 part right, 145 still open.
Counted forms: "agreed personal terms", "personal terms agreed", "agreement in principle".
“Total agreement”
33% proven right
242 claims: 81 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 0 part right, 161 still open.
Counted forms: "total agreement", "full agreement", "complete agreement".
“Here we go”
62% proven right
219 claims: 136 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 1 part right, 82 still open.
Counted forms: "here we go".
“Verbal agreement”
50% proven right
215 claims: 107 proven right, 1 proven wrong, 1 part right, 106 still open.
Counted forms: "verbal agreement", "verbally agreed".
“Advanced talks”
44% proven right
158 claims: 70 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 0 part right, 88 still open.
Counted forms: "advanced talks", "talks are advanced", "advanced negotiations".
“Official bid”
33% proven right
147 claims: 49 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 2 part right, 96 still open.
Counted forms: "official bid", "official offer", "formal bid", "formal offer".
“Medical booked”
47% proven right
96 claims: 45 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 0 part right, 51 still open.
Counted forms: "medical booked", "medical scheduled", "medicals booked", "undergo medical", "medical tests booked".
“Club will not sell”
6 of 47 proven right
47 claims: 6 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 0 part right, 41 still open.
Small sample: under 50 claims, so this is a count, not a statistic.
Counted forms: "not for sale", "will not sell", "won't sell", "no intention of selling".
“Only wants / dream move”
16 of 40 proven right
40 claims: 16 proven right, 0 proven wrong, 0 part right, 24 still open.
Small sample: under 50 claims, so this is a count, not a statistic.
Counted forms: "only wants", "dream move", "has made his choice", "priority is".
How to read this
A claim is proven right only when the move it describes is verified against a club announcement or an equivalent primary record, so “proven right” here is deliberately strict. Open claims count in every denominator: a phrase does not get credit for claims that never resolved. Sagas resolve over weeks, so recent claims are naturally still open, and every percentage on this page understates rather than flatters.
The corpus is 516+ tracked claims and growing, refreshed here a few times a day. The full method is on the methodology page. We don't have opinions. We have timestamps.