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The Window, Graded

Summer 2026, as a record rather than a memory: every claim timestamped when it was made and graded against what actually happened. Journalists and ITKs, same rules.

The window is open until 2026-09-01. These numbers are still moving.

The window in numbers

10,063

Claims tracked

468

Verified moves

3,246

Proven right

9

Proven wrong

6,761

Still open

122

Posts deleted

Counted from 1 June 2026. “Proven wrong” is deliberately rare: a claim is only overturned against a verified outcome, never against another claim.

The table

  1. 1
    Fabrizio Romano

    S TIER · TrueRank 1623 · 280 contested races

  2. 2
    Matteo Moretto

    S TIER · TrueRank 1607 · 88 contested races

  3. 3
    David Ornstein

    S TIER · TrueRank 1577 · 57 contested races

  4. 4
    Alex Crook

    A TIER · TrueRank 1524 · 73 contested races

  5. 5
    Santi Aouna

    A TIER · TrueRank 1522 · 20 contested races

  6. 6
    Florian Plettenberg

    A TIER · TrueRank 1516 · 106 contested races

  7. 7
    Nicolo Schira

    A TIER · TrueRank 1516 · 328 contested races

  8. 8
    Craig Hope

    A TIER · TrueRank 1516 · 23 contested races

  9. 9
    Rudy Galetti

    B TIER · TrueRank 1514 · 15 contested races

  10. 10
    Lyall Thomas

    B TIER · TrueRank 1512 · 27 contested races

Ranked by TrueRank, an Elo over contested transfer races: being first on stories others also covered. Full table and every account's record on their report card.

Most scoops

A scoop is being first on a story at least one other tracked account also covered. Announcement relays are never scoops.

The deletions

A deletion never changes a grade and the claim stays on the record. Timings, never wording, on the deletions ledger.

What the words were worth

  • Done deal · 39% proven right (516 claims)
  • Agreed personal terms · 46% proven right (279 claims)
  • Total agreement · 33% proven right (242 claims)
  • Here we go · 62% proven right (219 claims)
  • Verbal agreement · 50% proven right (215 claims)
  • Advanced talks · 44% proven right (158 claims)

Full table, method and caveats in the Phrasebook.

We don't have opinions. We have timestamps.